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OverDrive Logistics Market Report – August 10, 2026
U.S. Freight Market Update
The freight market is sending shippers an unusual combination of signals: freight volumes are not booming, but transportation costs and capacity pressure remain elevated. The clearest theme is that the current market is increasingly being driven by supply rather than demand. Fewer available trucks and drivers, carrier exits, higher diesel costs and stronger industrial activity are keeping upward pressure on transportation costs even as some lanes experience the normal post-July seasonal easing.
For shippers, this is not a market that calls for panic buying of capacity. It does, however, reward earlier tendering, stronger carrier relationships, lane-by-lane pricing strategies and disciplined carrier selection.
In this edition of my report, I’ll dig into some of the factors driving higher rates, and tighter truck capacity, and talk bout what shippers can do to plan ahead before the holiday crunch.
Truck capacity remains the biggest story
Recent data continue to support the argument that the truckload market has moved away from the oversupplied conditions of 2023–2025. FreightWaves‘ latest analysis describes capacity as tight even though overall freight demand remains uneven.
The latest U.S. Bank data reinforce the point. During Q1, shipment volume was essentially flat—down 0.3% in the 4th quarter of 2025 and up only 0.6% year over year—yet shipper transportation spending increased 12.9% quarter over quarter and 21.8% year over year. U.S. Bank characterized the market as one increasingly shaped by shrinking capacity rather than accelerating demand.
The SONAR Tender Rejection rates indicate the amount of options carriers have when choosing to accept a load. When capacity tightens, truckers can be pickier. This leads to shipping delays and increased costs for Shippers.
Recent carrier commentary suggests that pressure is continuing. Schneider National CEO Jim Filter said transportation costs are likely to continue rising because of driver availability constraints. Dry-van spot rates were approximately 39% higher year over year at the end of July, excluding fuel surcharges, according to the Wall Street Journal report.
💡Shipper Insight
The risk is no longer simply whether freight demand suddenly surges. A relatively modest increase in freight volume can now have an outsized impact because the market has less excess capacity available to absorb it.
Diesel remains a major transportation-cost problem
Fuel continues to amplify the capacity issue.
The latest available U.S. Energy Information Administration data show national on-highway diesel averaging $5.348 per gallon on August 3. That was another 3.5-cent weekly increase and approximately $1.55 per gallon higher than a year earlier.
Year over year National Average Diesel Price for last week is the highest since 2022.
After a brief drop, National Average Diesel price/gallon is back up to $5.35 and climbing.
The increase matters even when linehaul rates temporarily soften. Fuel surcharges ultimately flow through transportation budgets, meaning shippers can experience rising all-in costs even when the underlying spot market is relatively stable.
💡Shipper Insight
Evaluate transportation costs on an all-in basis, not simply linehaul. A seemingly attractive rate can become substantially less attractive once fuel and accessorial costs are incorporated.
Manufacturing could add another layer of freight demand
One of the more important developments for freight demand occurred outside trucking itself.
U.S. manufacturing activity jumped sharply in July. The ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 55.6, up from 53.3 in June and its strongest reading in more than four years. New orders, exports and backlogs increased, while manufacturing employment expanded for the first time in 33 months.
This is particularly important for dry van, flatbed, LTL and industrial freight. If manufacturing expansion continues while truck capacity remains constrained, freight demand does not need to grow dramatically before pricing pressure reappears.
The Class 8 truck market provides another indicator of improving carrier economics. ACT Research reported 31,751 North American Class 8 orders in June, more than triple the prior-year level. Tractor orders alone reached 22,041 units, nearly four times the year-earlier level. ACT attributes much of that rebound to improving freight rates and tighter capacity.
Class 8 Vehicle orders hit their highest level since 2022.
💡Shipper Insight
Industrial shippers should be particularly cautious about assuming today’s capacity will remain available at today’s price through the fall. Even with the increase in Class 8 vehicle orders, those units won’t be in-service until Q2 2027 at the earliest.
Produce and refrigerated capacity remain regional pressure points
Late-summer produce continues influencing refrigerated equipment positioning. California, the Pacific Northwest and several Upper Midwest markets remain important sources of seasonal produce freight.
The biggest impact is not necessarily a nationwide reefer shortage. Instead, produce creates localized capacity imbalances as trucks reposition toward higher-paying agricultural freight.
For food and beverage shippers, that can mean a lane that looks relatively normal one week becomes significantly more expensive the next.
The SONAR Reefer Market Conditions Map – Red indicates outbound rates have fallen more than usual over the past 4 days, blue means outbound rates have risen more than usual over the past 4 days.
💡Shipper Insight
Reefer procurement should increasingly be managed by market and lane rather than by a single national pricing assumption. Flexible pickup appointments and additional lead time can materially improve both price and carrier quality.
Broker financial requirements deserve more attention
Another 2026 change has received less attention from shippers but is worth watching.
New Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration broker financial-responsibility requirements took effect January 16. Among other provisions, if a broker’s available financial security falls below the required $75,000 and is not replenished within seven calendar days, FMCSA can suspend the broker’s operating authority.
A low freight quote has little value if the provider lacks the financial strength, carrier relationships or operational infrastructure required to execute the shipment.
What shippers should do now
The market does not justify abandoning contracted transportation strategies and moving everything to the spot market. It does justify becoming more deliberate.
Shippers should focus on five things over the next several weeks:
- Tender earlier. Additional lead time dramatically expands the carrier pool available to a broker or shipper.
- Review vulnerable lanes. Identify markets where produce, manufacturing or seasonal freight could compete for your trucks.
- Protect relationships. Reliable brokers and carriers become considerably more valuable when capacity tightens.
- Avoid chasing the absolute lowest rate. Extremely aggressive pricing can increase the risk of service failures, re-brokering and poor carrier selection.
- Prepare for fall freight. Retail replenishment, industrial activity and seasonal capacity pressure could quickly expose how little excess truck supply remains.
How OverDrive Logistics can help
In a tightening market, the objective should not simply be finding a truck. It should be finding the right truck at a competitive market price without compromising service or carrier quality.
OverDrive Logistics combines market intelligence with an established carrier network and transportation solutions spanning truckload, refrigerated, flatbed, LTL and specialized freight. OverDrive emphasizes long-term carrier relationships built around communication, integrity and dependable service.
That becomes particularly valuable when capacity tightens. Rather than waiting until a shipment is on the dock and searching for whichever truck remains available, OverDrive can help shippers evaluate lanes proactively, identify potential capacity problems, compare current pricing against market conditions and secure dependable carriers before those markets become constrained.
For shippers, the goal is straightforward: use market information to determine where you should negotiate aggressively and where protecting capacity is more important than squeezing out the final few dollars of rate.
What we’re watching next
The next few weeks should provide an important indication of how strong the freight market will be heading into fall. The most important signals are diesel prices, dry-van and reefer tender rejections, continued carrier and driver attrition, manufacturing freight, late-summer produce movements and the beginning of fall retail positioning.
The underlying message remains consistent: freight demand does not have to become exceptionally strong for rates to rise. The market simply needs enough freight to encounter a trucking industry that now has considerably less excess capacity.
Prepared by OverDrive Logistics for customer education and market awareness.
Source references include ACT Research, FreightWaves, Reuters,The Wall Street Journal, EIA, TIA, DAT, SONAR, U.S. Bancorp, and industry reporting.
